YouGovStone 'Influentials Monitor' - September 16th

Welcome back to our Influentials Monitor. This is the first of three surveys in parallel with the political party conference season.

Nick Clegg isn't delivering for the Influentials

Over half (52%) of Britain's influentials believe that under Nick Clegg's leadership the Liberal Democrat party is slipping back. Amongst the 15% of influentials sampled who support the Lib Dems only 39% believe the party is making positive progress and 38% think Nick Clegg is doing a good job.

This discouraging news for Britain's third political party comes as the Lib Dems discuss their future at their annual conference in Bournemouth. Other bad news for Nick Clegg includes a generally negative rating amongst influentials for his role as party leader, a lack of clarity about his policies and a need for him to gain a higher profile.

The research comes from YouGovStone's ThinkTank of influential people which surveyed 515 influentials in late August this year, before the Lib Dem conference began.

Is Nick Clegg doing a good job?

When asked how Nick Clegg was getting on, 17% of all the influentials surveyed said he is doing 'a good job' compared to 34% saying 'a poor job', a third 'neither', and 16% 'don’t know'. Scores improved amongst those claiming to be Lib Dems but still only 38% said he is doing a 'good job' while 18% said 'poor job', 34% said 'neither' and 9% 'don't know'. Labour and Tory supporters were more negative in their views of Mr Clegg.

Respondents were then given opposing statements and asked where their views lay. When asked to choose between whether they felt the party was making positive progress or slipping back, the general perception was negative with 52% opting for 'slipping back' and just 15% saying 'positive progress'. Amongst Lib Dem supporters the scores were also disappointing, with 32% saying 'slipping back', while 35% said 'positive progress'.

Just over half the total sample (52%) felt the party was 'having less impact since he took over'. This drops to 43% amongst influential Lib Dem supporters and a third of them (31%) thought impact was growing. There is also a split as to whether he has energised the party, whether he has unified it or if he has been a strong leader but there is a clear demand for him to raise his profile (83% of all respondents and 92% of party supporters).

The sample was asked if they expected major gains or major losses at the next election. With so few of the total sample being Lib Dems it wasn't surprising to find that just 15% of them expected gains, this grew to 33% of supporters but this is the same percentage as those expecting losses which isn't very encouraging for the party.

There is a distinct lack of clarity over Nick Clegg's policies. 77% of the total sample said that, to at least some extent, they aren't clear about his policies while just 13% claim they are clear. Even 49% of those who naturally consider themselves Lib Dem said they weren't clear while 40% said they were.

How does Nick Clegg rate as a party leader?

Survey respondents were asked to score seven attributes on a scale from 'Unnecessary' (0) to 'Essential' (10) based on each one's importance for a political leader in the UK. They then rated Nick Clegg against the same attributes using a scale from 'Very Poor' (0) to 'Outstanding' (10).

Nick Clegg scored highest for 'intelligence' with a mean score of 7.0, which was also the attribute that scored highest as being necessary for a party leader, with a mean score of 9.4, making it essential. 'Integrity' (mean 6.1) was the Liberal Democrat leader's second highest score, which also scored second on the list of being essential. His third placed score was 'media-friendly' (mean 6.0) which came sixth in the 'essential' list.

Nick Clegg's lowest score was for 'experience', scoring just 3.5, followed by 'handling a crisis' at 3.7 and then 'policies' at 4.4. His 'ability to read the public' was scored 4.7. The main mismatch between Mr Clegg's scores and the overall ranking comes in 'handling a crisis', to which many may feel he hasn't really been tested yet, and also policies.

These results are from the YouGovStone's 'Influentials Monitor', a survey of 515 senior influential people, polled between Wednesday August 27th and Wednesday September 3rd 2008.

YouGovStone is holding fringe debates at both the Labour and Conservative Party Conferences, in association with POLIS.

At the Labour Party Conference in Manchester the title is 'Who Calls the Shots – Politicians or Journalists?' to be debated on Monday 22nd September at 12.45pm in the Midland Hotel Derby Room. Carole Stone is in the chair and the panellists are The Rt Hon Charles Clarke MP, Former Secretary of State and MP for Norwich South; The Rt Hon Dr Denis Macshane MP, MP for Rotherham; Andrew Gilligan, Columnist and Reporter, The Evening Standard; and John Lloyd, Contributing Editor, The Financial Times and Director of Journalism, Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, Oxford University.

In Birmingham at the Conservative Party Conference the debate topic is 'Leadership - Has Style Overtaken Substance?' at 12.45pm on Monday 29th September at the Copthorne Hotel Jubilee Suite. Carole Stone chairs, with the panel being Jeremy Hunt MP, MP for South West Surrey and Shadow Culture Secretary; Benedict Brogan, Political Editor, The Daily Mail; Priti Patel, Director, Weber Shandwick Communications and Conservative Candidate for Witham, and Andrew Gilligan of The Evening Standard.

If you are attending the conferences we would be pleased to see you at the events; these are first-come first-served, refreshments are available, and further details can be found in the Fringe online listings or by contacting rsvp@yougovstone.com.

The Influentials Monitor is completed by a representative sample of the YouGovStone ThinkTank which comprises over 3,000 influential individuals, predominantly UK based, drawn from sectors including politics, business, media, the arts, academia, health, charity and law.

For more details about these results or to find out how to commission your own questions for the ThinkTank, please contact Oliver Rowe, YouGovStone's Business Development Director on +44 (0)207 012 6032 or email oliver.rowe@yougovstone.com.