Latest research from the YouGovStone ThinkTank shows opinion leaders believe that there will be more regime change in the Middle East; that GPs are ill-prepared for taking over NHS budgetary control; and there is low confidence in the Eurozone economy.

This summary contains the results of the latest research with the YouGovStone ThinkTank of influential people. The survey interviewed 769 leading individuals between February 2nd and 9th 2011. Members of the YouGovStone ThinkTank are drawn from a wide variety of backgrounds including politics, business, media, academia and the public sector.

North Africa and the Middle East

Following the series of demonstrations and unrest that swept many countries in North Africa and the Middle East the ThinkTank is not confident about the outcomes of these actions. 41% believe that in the long term Tunisia will develop into a stable democracy; 43% think so about Egypt. However, 37% and 34% respectively doubt it, and hardly any strongly agree or strongly disagree. Opinion is far more unanimous with respect to whether more regimes will be overturned following the unrest in Tunisia and Egypt: 70% agree, but only 9% strongly agree. A majority (56%) of panellists do not believe that removing President Mubarak would damage Britain’s long-term interests; but 15% think that it may. The questions were asked prior to the unrest and subsequent NATO intervention in Libya.

Healthcare provision

The coalition government’s reforms of the healthcare system have caused much debate and the responses from the panel reflect this. Asked whether they fully support the Government’s decision to abolish Primary Care Trusts, the panel is divided: a small majority of 39% disagree, but 31% agree, with a further 29% uncertain. Interestingly, those panellists working in the health sector are more polarised in their opinion: 17% strongly agree, but a majority of 51% disagree or strongly disagree.

The ThinkTank does, however, agree with the principle behind the reform of offering greater patient choice when it comes to major procedures. 70% are either in favour or strongly in favour of this. Nevertheless, the majority of our panellists believe that the execution of these reforms has been poor. Over half (53%) think that the reforms will not save any money, and three quarters (73%) are worried that GPs are not prepared enough for their extended roles under these reforms. Panellists from the health sector are even more pessimistic: 65% believe the reforms will not save money; similarly, 44% agree, and 42% strongly agree, that GPs are ill-prepared for the reforms.

The economy

When it came to questions regarding the economy, prior to the release of January’s increase in the headline rate of inflation, the ThinkTank is uncertain. 35% believe that the Bank of England should raise interest rates, whereas 43% oppose this. Interestingly, only 28% of respondents working in Government or politics agree that interest rates should be raised. Similarly, 36% of the panel think the UK is currently experiencing a double dip recession, narrowly beating the 35% who do not believe this. Panellists working in business are less likely to believe this (only 31% agreed), while those in health and media are more likely to think so, with 43% and 41% agreeing respectively.

World economies

Asked how confident they feel about four world economies, the ‘influentials’ are on the whole slightly negative. The economy of the Eurozone inspires the least confidence, with a mean score of only 38 out of 100 (where 0 is not at all confident and 100 is very confident). The UK’s economy fares slightly better, but the panel is still pessimistic on the whole, with a mean score of 44. The panel is only really positive about the Chinese economy, at 69 points on average; views towards the US economy are almost completely neutral, at 52, but well above the Eurozone score.

YouGovStone’s ThinkTank is a group of over 4,000 influential individuals, predominantly UK based, drawn from various sectors including politics, business, media, the public sector, academia and NGOs.

YouGovStone now regularly surveys MPs and other groups of high level decision makers in the UK and internationally. If your organisation needs to know what these individuals think, please contact Oliver Rowe, YouGovStone's Research Director on +44 (0)207 012 6032 or email oliver.rowe@yougovstone.com.